Talks of a potential recession are making headlines again—and naturally, buyers and homeowners are asking:
“Will my home lose value?”
“Will mortgage rates spike again?”

Let’s break down what typically happens in the housing market when the economy slows down—and why you may not need to panic.

A Recession Doesn’t Always Equal Falling Prices

Many people assume a recession means home prices will drop, like they did in 2008. But that downturn was unique—and driven by overbuilding, loose lending, and a foreclosure crisis.

In fact, home prices have actually increased in 4 of the last 6 recessions.

As you can see, only 1991 and 2008 saw declines, and 2008 was the real outlier at nearly -20%. Today’s market is very different—inventory is still tight, especially in Los Angeles County. Demand continues to outpace supply, and that’s keeping prices stable or rising in most markets.

So, if you're worried about a crash in values—the data just doesn’t back that up.

Mortgage Rates Usually Drop During a Recession

Here’s some good news: while home prices don’t typically fall in a recession, mortgage rates do.

In each of the last 6 recessions, mortgage rates dropped—sometimes significantly. That means a slowdown could boost your buying power if you’re planning to purchase.

Will we see 3% interest rates again? Probably not. But a 1–1.5% drop in rates could still mean lower monthly payments or more house for your budget.

Bottom Line

We may or may not be heading into a recession. But even if we do, history shows that:

? Home prices usually hold steady or rise
? Mortgage rates often fall
? The housing market doesn’t crash every time the economy slows

If you’re wondering how current trends are impacting your home value or buying opportunity in Los Angeles, let’s talk.