If you’re watching the headlines, you’ve probably seen the word “recession” pop up again. And if you’re planning to buy or sell a home in the Los Angeles area—or anywhere in the country—you might be wondering: Should I wait for a recession before I make my move?

It’s a common question. In fact, a recent joint survey by John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) found that 68% of potential buyers and sellers are holding off due to economic uncertainty.

But is waiting really the smartest move? Let’s break it down with facts and data.

Do Mortgage Rates Really Fall in a Recession?

It’s true that mortgage rates usually fall during a recession. Historically, economic slowdowns trigger action from the Federal Reserve to stimulate growth—often through lower interest rates. That tends to result in lower mortgage rates, making home loans more affordable.

Here’s a look at what’s happened during the last six U.S. recessions:

Every time, rates dropped—sometimes dramatically. So yes, a recession could help with affordability if rates go down.

But What About Home Prices?

Here’s where many hopeful buyers and sellers are getting it wrong: they assume a recession also means home prices will drop. But the data tells a different story.

In four out of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up—not down.

The only major price drop happened in 2008—and that was due to the housing crisis, not just the recession. Today’s market is very different, with stricter lending practices and a long-term inventory shortage still in play.

So, Is It Smarter To Wait?

If you’re waiting for a recession to get a better deal, here’s what you need to consider:

• ?? Mortgage rates may go down, but...

• ??? Home prices likely won’t.

• ?? Inventory is still low compared to demand, which supports prices.

• ?? Delaying could cost you if prices continue to rise, even slowly.

As Robert Frick, Corporate Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, explains:

"Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point."

Bottom Line

The smart move isn’t waiting for the “perfect” market—it’s understanding what’s really happening and making a strategy that works now.

If you're in the Los Angeles area and want clear, local advice on how to move forward confidently—whether you’re buying or selling—let’s connect. The best opportunities often go to those who act, not those who wait.

?? Call us to start planning your move today.
?? Vic Markarian Realty – 34 Years Helping Sellers in Los Angeles and Surrounding Areas